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EthnoPolitical Conflict Simulator:
Influencing Leaders and Followers
Barry G. Silverman, PhD
Electrical & Systems Engineering Dept.
Wharton/OPIM and School of Medicine
University of Pennsylvania
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6315
barryg@seas.upenn.edu
For Official Use Only (FOUO)
© Barry G Silverman, 2005
Talk Outline
Ethno-Political Conflicts – Multi-Faction Game
Three Challenges:
I – Realistic Human Behavior Modeling (PMFserv)
II – Validation of FactionSim – Islamification Case
III Simulation Intractability/Experimentation Dashboard
Next Steps
© Barry G. Silverman, 2006
EthnoPolitical Conflict Factions’ Roles, Assets, Strategies
Leader Type*: Elected Tribal Dictator Religious
Grand Strategy
Category*
SubTasks/
Missions*
Real* & Perceived
Assets/Resources
Goods
Law/Mil
Popular Support
Leader(s)
Loyal Followers
‘Rival’ Leaders
Fringe Followers
SPIN Get (buy) support
for/against
group and action
FORM PACT with
another group to become
more powerful (more of
each tank) against C
Contract Terms
Recruit
Pay (ongoing
Negotiate
Offer
Haggle
Abide
Violate
A: ingroup
Real* & Perceived
Assets/Resources
Goods
Law/Mil
Popular Support
Militaristic Attack on C,
spoils to A, Brag
Build, Recon,
Move, Attack,
Assassinate,
.
Block Goods
Take Jobs
Deny Infrastr
Prospective Followers
(and their “leaders”)
Economic War on C,
spoils to A, Brag
B: potential allies
Improve Life for A, Brag
Give Goods
Real* & Perceived
Assets/Resources
Goods
Law/Mil
Popular Support
Provide Jobs
Improve Life for B, Brag
Build Infrastr
Enemy’s Fringe Fs
Enemy Loyal Fs
Enemy Leader(s)
Defend Economically:
Protect/Secure/Defend,
Whine About C
Defend Militarily
Protect/Secure/Defend,
Whine About C
Ban Trade,
Boycott, Limit
JobsInGroup
Fortfy border,
Patrol, Intel,
No Privacy
C: hated outgroups
Group Values*: Secular Theocrat Fundamental Autocrat Anarchy
© Barry G. Silverman, 2006
Athena’s Prism as TableTop Game
© Barry G Silverman, 2005
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